3
Ipso Facto
4yo Gelding · 9-6
Vichy · Prix d'Espinasse-Vozelle Claiming Handicap · 6f 211y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲4
Strength26%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.1 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C7.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -3.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Deauville | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-11 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Compiegne | 30 | 5th | 36th | −26 |
| 2026-04-05 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 12
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength93%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 47% | +0.20 |
| 22/01/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 17/03/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 05/04/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 14/05/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 11/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 88% | -0.05 |