King Thistle
4yo Gelding · 9-6
Vichy · Prix d'Espinasse-Vozelle Claiming Handicap · 6f 211y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Le Touquet | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Chantilly | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-13 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-07-20 | Vittel | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2024 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 23/09/2024 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 18/10/2024 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 54% | +0.17 |
| 20/07/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 13/04/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 07/05/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 44% | +0.39 |
| 19/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 28/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 26/07/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |