11
Reux
4yo Colt · 8-9
Vichy · Prix d'Espinasse-Vozelle Claiming Handicap · 6f 211y
#8
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Vichy | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-20 | Fontainebleau | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Marseille | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength86%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/02/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 93% | +0.45 |
| 06/03/2026 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 10/03/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 43% | -0.41 |
| 22/03/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 31/03/2026 | 12th | 9/1 | 53% | 21% | -0.31 |
| 20/04/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 55% | +0.49 |
| 03/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 20/07/2026 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |