9
J'aurais Du
10yo Gelding · 8-13
Vichy · Prix de la Fouillouse Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength53%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Vichy | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Deauville | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Compiegne | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Compiegne | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-15 | Evreux | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Deauville | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 13/03/2026 | 14th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 21/03/2026 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 21% | -0.05 |
| 07/04/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 58% | -0.07 |
| 15/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 93% | +0.35 |
| 04/07/2026 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |