10
Magic Tunis
6yo Gelding · 8-13
Vichy · Prix de la Fouillouse Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength51%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Vichy | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-02 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength93%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/2025 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 02/12/2025 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 53% | +0.48 |
| 30/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 92% | +0.50 |
| 17/01/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 02/02/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 22/02/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.28 |
| 13/06/2026 | 11th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 93% | +0.17 |