11
Mokka Latte
4yo Filly · 8-13
Vichy · Prix de la Fouillouse Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Vichy | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Aix-Les-Bains | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Marseille-borely | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-18 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-02-02 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-01-20 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength44%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 06/12/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 15/12/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 58% | -0.07 |
| 20/01/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 02/02/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 73% | +0.31 |
| 18/02/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 18/03/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 42% | +0.36 |
| 30/06/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 25% | -0.17 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |