9
Lhasa
5yo Filly · 8-1
Vichy · Prix de Saulcet Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength51%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Compiegne | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Saint-Cloud | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-02-25 | Chantilly | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-01-22 | Deauville | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength98%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 93% | +0.30 |
| 05/12/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 77% | -0.02 |
| 03/01/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 22/01/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 79% | +0.23 |
| 25/02/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 17/04/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 93% | +0.67 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 93% | +0.06 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 93% | +0.06 |
| 02/07/2026 | 5th | 5/4 | 93% | 71% | -0.22 |