5
Nocturne Blou
3yo Filly · 8-8
Vichy · Prix Louis Cambreleng Stakes · 6f 211y
#1
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
75%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Vichy | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-22 | Marseille | ? | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Marseille | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2025-12-16 | Marseille | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-12-08 | Marseille | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2025-09-03 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength36%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 30/07/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 06/08/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |
| 03/09/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 08/12/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 16/12/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 22/05/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 11% | +0.06 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |