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Varzuga

3yo Filly · 9-1

Vichy · Prix Louis Cambreleng Stakes · 6f 211y

#2

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength2%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Pau 28/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR - · 7f209y Std 12428/11C5C5 @ Pau 26/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Std 124C5 @ Deauville 29/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 6f101y Std 12829/01C5C5 @ Bordeaux Le Bouscat 10/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR - · 6f211y Hvy 120C5 @ Mont De Marsan 23/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 5f212y GS 12423/03C5C0 @ Moulins 09/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 6f211y Sft 125C5 @ Bordeaux Le Bouscat 27/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 6f211y GS 12127/04C5C0 @ La Teste De Buch 26/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 5f102y Gd 1234 @ Tarbes 03/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 5f102y Sft 1303/074projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-03Tarbes44th5th−1
2026-06-26La Teste De Buch?5th5th0
2026-04-27Bordeaux Le Bouscat?1st3rd−2
2026-04-09Moulins?7th7th0
2026-03-23Mont De Marsan?1st3rd−2
2026-03-10Bordeaux Le Bouscat?12th14th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/1110/0327/043/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength92%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/11/202510th80/10%25%+0.25
26/12/20256th40/10%38%+0.38
29/01/202611th66/10%9%+0.09
10/03/202612th80/10%8%+0.08
23/03/20261st40/10%100%+1.00
09/04/20267th22/10%50%+0.50
27/04/20261st28/10%100%+1.00
26/06/20265th14/126%43%+0.17
03/07/20264th11/142%57%+0.15