5
Amazing Surprise
2yo Filly · 8-12
Vichy · Prix de Sault Claiming Stakes · 7f 209y
#2
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
23%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength43%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.6
Today:
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Vichy | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Strasbourg | 3 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-05-23 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-04-27 | Marseille-borely | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Marseille-borely | 3 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-03-18 | Marseille-borely | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength81%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 10/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 27/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 58% | +0.43 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |