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6

Shahbaz

6yo Gelding · 10-10 · OR 62

Windsor · A1R Services Ltd Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 1m 3f 99y

#4

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Switched to amateur races, made more impact than previously for current yard when making the frame both starts in February. Possibly needed the run when down the field at Epsom 18 days ago, so he could be in the mix with tongue strap refitted.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Epsom Downs 11/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 73 · 1m4f6y Sft 151 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/09/2025 · OR 73 par11/094OR 734 @ Kempton 19/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 73 · 1m2f219y Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/11/2025 · OR 73 par5 @ Kempton 03/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 72 · 1m2f219y Sta 137 · below its mark03/12/2025 · OR 72 par3/125OR 724 @ Wolverhampton 13/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 71 · 1m1f104y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/12/2025 · OR 71 par4 @ Lingfield 22/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 69 · 1m2f Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/12/2025 · OR 69 par22/124OR 695 @ Southwell 03/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 67 · 1m3f23y Std 136 · beat its mark03/01/2026 · OR 67 par6 @ Wolverhampton 02/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 64 · 1m4f51y Std 156 · beat its mark02/02/2026 · OR 64 par2/026OR 645 @ Lingfield 14/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 65 · 1m4f Std 153 · beat its mark14/02/2026 · OR 65 par4 @ Epsom Downs 16/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 64 · 1m4f6y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 64 par16/074OR 64projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-16Epsom Downs46th5th+1
2026-02-14Lingfield54th4th0
2026-02-02Wolverhampton62nd3rd−1
2026-01-03Southwell58th8th0
2025-12-22Lingfield410th9th+1
2025-12-13Wolverhampton49th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0913/122/0216/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength1%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/09/20253rd28/10%78%+0.78
19/11/20259th18/15%33%+0.28
03/12/202510th33/10%10%+0.10
13/12/20259th66/10%20%+0.20
22/12/202510th150/10%0%0.00
03/01/20268th66/10%22%+0.22
02/02/20262nd11/893%91%-0.02
14/02/20264th5/174%63%-0.11
16/07/20266th14/126%17%-0.10