Havana Halo
4yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 62
Windsor · Happy Birthday Tyne Patterson Fillies' Handicap · 6f 12y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 6.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Lingfield | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Newbury | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Southwell | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-06 | Kempton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-05-22 | Haydock | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-05-12 | Windsor | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 12/05/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 22/05/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 06/08/2025 | 4th | 11/5 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |
| 07/10/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 23/06/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 13/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |