Independent Expert
7yo Mare · 10-0 · OR 75
Windsor · Happy Birthday Tyne Patterson Fillies' Handicap · 6f 12y
#4
Rank
Odds
100/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 5.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Ascot | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Windsor | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Dundalk | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-05-20 | Gowran Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-04-22 | Gowran Park | BHA84 | 8th | 12th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 03/04/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 22/04/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 30% | -0.23 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 4/5 | 96% | 33% | -0.62 |
| 26/05/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 56% | -0.29 |
| 01/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 20/07/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/07/2026 | 9th | 100/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |