5
Lahina Bay
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 57
Windsor · Happy Birthday Tyne Patterson Fillies' Handicap · 6f 12y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
89%
Place Prob
69%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Salisbury | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Salisbury | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-22 | Windsor | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Lingfield | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Lingfield | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength58%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/11/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 03/12/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 22/12/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 03/01/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 24/01/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 75% | +0.20 |
| 25/07/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |