3
Q T Pie
3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 68
Windsor · Happy Birthday Tyne Patterson Fillies' Handicap · 6f 12y
#2
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Leicester | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Goodwood | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Leicester | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Lingfield | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-26 | Windsor | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-10 | Newbury | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength27%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 26/07/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 30/08/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 22/09/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 04/07/2026 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |