2
Saucy Jane
3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 72
Windsor · Happy Birthday Tyne Patterson Fillies' Handicap · 6f 12y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Bath | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thirsk | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Chester | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Pontefract | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Beverley | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-27 | Bath | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength59%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/03/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 30/03/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 11/04/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 27/04/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |
| 12/05/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 12/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 15/07/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |