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Freedom Bay

4yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 50

Windsor · Talk Sport Classified Stakes · 1m 2f

#5

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has reacted well to a tongue strap and cheekpieces combination, winning handicap at Bath (1m, good) and close third in Lingfield classified event (1m, all-weather) in recent months. Player if as effective over this longer trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Leicester 14/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 54 · 1m53y Goo 135 · beat its mark14/06/2025 · OR 54 par14/066OR 546 @ Windsor 30/06/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 53 · 1m31y GF 126 · beat its mark30/06/2025 · OR 53 par6 @ Wolverhampton 22/07/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 51 · 7f36y Std 126 · below its mark22/07/2025 · OR 51 par22/076OR 516 @ Chepstow 02/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 48 · 7f16y Sft 128 · beat its mark02/09/2025 · OR 48 par4 @ Wolverhampton 16/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 46 · 1m142y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/09/2025 · OR 46 par16/094OR 466 @ Wolverhampton 04/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 46 · 1m4f51y Std 122 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 46 par6 @ Nottingham 18/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 45 · 1m75y Goo 126 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 45 par18/046OR 456 @ Bath 13/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 45 · 1m Gd 121 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Lingfield 13/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 50 · 1m1y Std 135 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 50 par13/076OR 50projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-13Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-06-13Bath61st1st0
2026-04-18Nottingham610th10th0
2025-10-04Wolverhampton67th7th0
2025-09-16Wolverhampton45th3rd+2
2025-09-02Chepstow64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/062/0918/0413/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/06/20254th3/184%25%-0.59
30/06/20259th7/282%33%-0.48
22/07/20259th15/261%0%-0.61
02/09/20254th11/486%40%-0.46
16/09/20255th66/10%20%+0.20
04/10/20257th28/10%25%+0.25
18/04/202610th11/142%0%-0.42
13/06/20261st33/10%100%+1.00
13/07/20263rd4/179%75%-0.04