3
Letsbeatsepsis
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 49
Windsor · Talk Sport Classified Stakes · 1m 2f
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bath | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Brighton | 6 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Lingfield | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-03 | Lingfield | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-15 | Epsom Downs | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength34%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 28/07/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 12/08/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 15/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 03/09/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 44% | -0.37 |
| 19/05/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 09/06/2026 | 12th | 9/2 | 76% | 8% | -0.68 |
| 01/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 73% | -0.01 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |