9
Madame Passant
3yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 50
Windsor · Talk Sport Classified Stakes · 1m 2f
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength87%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 9.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Ffos Las | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Chepstow | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Windsor | 2 | 10th | 5th | +4 |
| 2026-04-18 | Newbury | 4 | 21th | 19th | +2 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kempton | 4 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 12
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 18/04/2026 | 21st | 200/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 18/05/2026 | 10th | 400/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |