Maryland Star
3yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 48
Windsor · Talk Sport Classified Stakes · 1m 2f
#12
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 7.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Lingfield | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Bath | 6 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-10-07 | Brighton | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-09-22 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 11th | 200/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 22/09/2025 | 10th | 250/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 07/10/2025 | 5th | 250/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 09/04/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 27/04/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 30% | +0.25 |
| 05/06/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |