4
Moonlit Cloud
8yo Mare · 9-9 · OR 48
Windsor · Talk Sport Classified Stakes · 1m 2f
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Lingfield | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Bath | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Windsor | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Nottingham | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Chelmsford City | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 12
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength24%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07/2025 | 10th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 07/08/2025 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 02/09/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 02/10/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 23/10/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 21/04/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 04/05/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 33% | -0.09 |
| 05/06/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |