11
Panthere Noir
3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 47
Windsor · Talk Sport Classified Stakes · 1m 2f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
88%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Lingfield | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Epsom Downs | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Windsor | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Bath | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/03/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 36% | +0.31 |
| 19/03/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 44% | -0.19 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 25% | +0.20 |
| 13/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 16/06/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 11% | -0.31 |
| 01/07/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |