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6

Tiger Beetle

8yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 50

Windsor · Talk Sport Classified Stakes · 1m 2f

#2

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fourteen runs since last win in 2024 but back on form when third of 9 in handicap at Chepstow (1¼m, good to firm, 22/1) 10 days ago. Not taken lightly.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 24/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 64 · 1m5f219y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/11/2025 · OR 64 par24/115OR 645 @ Wolverhampton 20/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 62 · 1m4f51y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/12/2025 · OR 62 par6 @ Wolverhampton 02/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 60 · 1m1f104y Std 130 · below its mark02/02/2026 · OR 60 par2/026OR 606 @ Wolverhampton 17/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 57 · 1m1f104y Std 134 · below its mark17/02/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Wolverhampton 31/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 55 · 1m1f104y Std 131 · beat its mark31/03/2026 · OR 55 par31/036OR 556 @ Wolverhampton 10/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 55 · 1m4f51y Std 135 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Wolverhampton 11/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 53 · 1m1f104y Std 129 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 53 par11/056OR 536 @ Chepstow 15/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 52 · 1m2f Goo 148 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Chepstow 24/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 50 · 1m2f GF 132 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 50 par24/076OR 50projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24Chepstow63rd3rd0
2026-06-15Chepstow68th8th0
2026-05-11Wolverhampton67th7th0
2026-04-10Wolverhampton65th5th0
2026-03-31Wolverhampton63rd3rd0
2026-02-17Wolverhampton67th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/1117/0211/0524/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/11/20254th200/10%73%+0.73
20/12/20256th66/10%44%+0.44
02/02/20268th22/10%13%+0.13
17/02/20267th22/10%14%+0.14
31/03/20263rd6/168%78%+0.09
10/04/20265th10/147%60%+0.13
11/05/20267th12/137%40%+0.03
15/06/20268th17/255%13%-0.43
24/07/20263rd22/10%75%+0.75