Ararat
6yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 65
Windsor · Talk Sport Radio Handicap · 1m 31y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Sandown | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ascot | 4 | 13th | 11th | +2 |
| 2026-06-23 | Newbury | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Salisbury | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-05 | Goodwood | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-05-14 | Salisbury | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/01/2026 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 16/02/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 07/03/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 14/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 11/07/2026 | 13th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 23/07/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |