5
Benavente
8yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 59
Windsor · Talk Sport Radio Handicap · 1m 31y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C7.1
Today: 6
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | Dundalk | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Dundalk | BHA72 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Dundalk | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-02-27 | Dundalk | BHA69 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-20 | Dundalk | BHA70 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-13 | Dundalk | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength69%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/12/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 09/01/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 36% | -0.16 |
| 16/01/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 13/02/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 20/02/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 27/02/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 92% | +0.34 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 20/03/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/03/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |