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6

Havana Club

4yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 57

Windsor · Talk Sport Radio Handicap · 1m 31y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

84%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Resumed winning ways at Bath (1m, firm) under Finley Marsh 19 days ago. Raised 5 lb but his stable's fine form provides hope for another big run.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 06/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 52 · 6f20y Std 138 · beat its mark06/12/2025 · OR 52 par6/126OR 526 @ Wolverhampton 20/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 57 · 7f36y Std 133 · below its mark20/12/2025 · OR 57 par6 @ Wolverhampton 16/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 56 · 6f20y Std 130 · below its mark16/02/2026 · OR 56 par16/026OR 566 @ Lingfield 25/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 53 · 7f1y Std 134 · beat its mark25/03/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Bath 05/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 51 · 1m Goo 131 · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 51 par5/046OR 516 @ Bath 29/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 50 · 1m Fm 130 · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Bath 12/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 52 · 1m Fm 127 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 52 par12/056OR 526 @ Windsor 29/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 52 · 1m31y GF 132 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Bath 15/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 52 · 1m Fm 132 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 52 par15/076OR 52projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-15Bath61st1st0
2026-06-29Windsor64th4th0
2026-05-12Bath66th6th0
2026-04-29Bath62nd2nd0
2026-04-05Bath64th4th0
2026-03-25Lingfield68th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/1225/0312/0515/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/12/20255th15/890%60%-0.30
20/12/20259th12/137%0%-0.37
16/02/20268th22/10%0%0.00
25/03/20268th22/10%13%+0.13
05/04/20264th18/15%75%+0.70
29/04/20262nd9/276%88%+0.11
12/05/20266th10/382%44%-0.38
29/06/20264th15/261%70%+0.09
15/07/20261st9/488%100%+0.12