8
Havana Tobouggaloo
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 54
Windsor · Talk Sport Radio Handicap · 1m 31y
#9
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Ffos Las | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Ffos Las | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Yarmouth | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Bath | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-05 | Kempton | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Leicester | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength44%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 18/07/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/07/2025 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 80% | +0.75 |
| 14/10/2025 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 05/11/2025 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 17/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 56% | -0.15 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |