9
Homme De Fer
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 53
Windsor · Talk Sport Radio Handicap · 1m 31y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength46%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Kempton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Chelmsford City | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-27 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Kempton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength53%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/12/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 10/12/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 73% | -0.06 |
| 22/12/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 14/01/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 27/01/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 21/02/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 25/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 08/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |