11
Nouba Castelets
3yo Filly · 9-2
Cabourg · Prix Des Erables - Monte · 1m 5f 147y
#13
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Cabourg | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-26 | Hyeres | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-19 | Vincennes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-12-03 | Vincennes | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/12/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |