7
Our Hero Matty
3yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 50
Catterick · Hugh James Classified Stakes · 7f 6y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Beverley | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Catterick | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Newcastle | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Nottingham | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Southwell | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-12 | Chester | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength47%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2025 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 27/07/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 29/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 12/09/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 27/09/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 18/04/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.28 |
| 19/05/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 9% | -0.28 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 67% | +0.61 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |