3
Rain Cap
9yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 50
Catterick · Hugh James Classified Stakes · 7f 6y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
81%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Pontefract | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Hamilton | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Catterick | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Carlisle | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 01/12/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 06/02/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/03/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 88% | +0.32 |
| 06/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 15/06/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 16/07/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 26/07/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |