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3

Fleur De Mer

6yo Mare · 9-6 · OR 57

Catterick · Jacky Rylance 60th Birthday Celebration Handicap · 1m 7f 189y

#8

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Without a win in 22 starts but some solid efforts this year and mark has eased another 2 lb (not seen to best effect last time). Change of headgear.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 09/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 63 · 1m4f98y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 63 par9/105OR 635 @ Southwell 31/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 63 · 1m6f21y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 63 par5 @ Wolverhampton 24/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 63 · 1m5f219y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/11/2025 · OR 63 par24/115OR 636 @ Wolverhampton 27/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 62 · 1m5f219y Std 138 · beat its mark27/12/2025 · OR 62 par5 @ Southwell 22/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 61 · 1m6f21y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/01/2026 · OR 61 par22/015OR 616 @ Southwell 11/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 60 · 1m6f21y Std 136 · beat its mark11/02/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Pontefract 07/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 60 · 1m4f5y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 60 par7/045OR 606 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 60 · 1m7f Sft 137 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Carlisle 09/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 59 · 1m3f39y Goo 141 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 59 par9/076OR 59projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-09Carlisle64th4th0
2026-06-19Ayr66th6th0
2026-04-07Pontefract53rd2nd+1
2026-02-11Southwell62nd2nd0
2026-01-22Southwell53rd2nd+1
2025-12-27Wolverhampton63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/1027/127/049/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength53%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/10/20255th14/126%50%+0.24
31/10/20253rd25/10%60%+0.60
24/11/20259th9/153%27%-0.25
27/12/20253rd9/153%80%+0.27
22/01/20263rd14/126%75%+0.49
11/02/20262nd11/271%75%+0.04
07/04/20263rd17/255%82%+0.27
19/06/20266th12/137%29%-0.08
09/07/20264th13/266%40%-0.26