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Karthala

4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 60

Catterick · Jacky Rylance 60th Birthday Celebration Handicap · 1m 7f 189y

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Decent in-frame efforts over hurdles this summer but has work to do back on the Flat off current mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength84%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 02/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 65 · 1m4f51y Std 155 · beat its mark02/02/2026 · OR 65 par2/026OR 656 @ Southwell 28/02/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 63 · 1m3f23y Std 133 · below its mark28/02/2026 · OR 63 par4 @ Huntingdon 04/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m7f171y Gd 151 · HIGHER CLASS4/0444 @ Bangor-on-Dee 18/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR - · 2m145y Gd 149 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Hexham 02/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 2m48y Gd 152 · HIGHER CLASS2/0545 @ Warwick 20/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 88 · 2m Gd 156 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 88 par5 @ Perth 07/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 88 · 2m47y Gd 155 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 88 par7/065OR 885 @ Worcester 01/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 88 · 2m4f Gd 155 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 88 par5 @ Uttoxeter 15/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 87 · 1m7f168y Gd 155 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 87 par15/075OR 87projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-15Uttoxeter53rd2nd+1
2026-07-01Worcester54th3rd+1
2026-06-07Perth53rd2nd+1
2026-05-20Warwick53rd2nd+1
2026-05-02Hexham45th3rd+2
2026-04-18Bangor-on-Dee48th6th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0218/047/0615/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/02/20265th12/137%64%+0.27
28/02/202610th11/271%18%-0.53
04/04/20265th22/10%43%+0.43
18/04/20268th150/10%42%+0.42
02/05/20265th40/10%43%+0.43
20/05/20263rd50/10%71%+0.71
07/06/20263rd22/10%82%+0.82
01/07/20264th4/179%70%-0.09
15/07/20263rd6/168%82%+0.13