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7

Lillistar

6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 47

Catterick · Jacky Rylance 60th Birthday Celebration Handicap · 1m 7f 189y

#7

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Best form on the level has come at around 2m, winning at Wolverhampton in October and second at Newcastle in March, but she hasn't been very convincing on turf this year. Cheekpieces now applied.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wetherby 31/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 83 · 2m5f56y Gd 146 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 83 par31/105OR 835 @ Sedgefield 13/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 83 · 2m3f188y Sft 154 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/11/2025 · OR 83 par5 @ Musselburgh 08/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 82 · 2m3f171y Sft 150 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/12/2025 · OR 82 par8/125OR 826 @ Newcastle 11/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 49 · 2m56y Std 129 · beat its mark11/03/2026 · OR 49 par5 @ Market Rasen 05/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 81 · 2m4f139y Goo 152 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 81 par5/045OR 816 @ Pontefract 21/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 49 · 2m5f139y Goo 125 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Pontefract 22/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 48 · 1m4f5y Goo 125 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 48 par22/056OR 486 @ Catterick 30/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 48 · 1m7f189y GF 123 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Redcar 19/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 48 · 1m7f217y Goo 127 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 48 par19/076OR 48projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-19Redcar63rd3rd0
2026-05-30Catterick63rd3rd0
2026-05-22Pontefract65th5th0
2026-04-21Pontefract66th6th0
2026-04-05Market Rasen55th4th+1
2026-03-11Newcastle62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/1011/0322/0519/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength30%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/10/20253rd5/174%82%+0.08
13/11/20254th17/255%67%+0.11
08/12/20252nd10/147%80%+0.33
11/03/20262nd9/153%89%+0.36
05/04/20265th10/382%56%-0.27
21/04/20266th18/581%17%-0.64
22/05/20265th4/179%33%-0.46
30/05/20263rd12/137%50%+0.13
19/07/20263rd9/276%33%-0.43