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6

Speechman

6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 48

Catterick · Jacky Rylance 60th Birthday Celebration Handicap · 1m 7f 189y

#6

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Regressive handicapper who has offered little for current connections (hollow second over C&D on penultimate start). Tongue strap applied.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 01/11/2025 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 63 · 1m2f42y Std 138 · below its mark01/11/2025 · OR 63 par1/116OR 636 @ Newcastle 18/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 61 · 2m56y Std 138 · beat its mark18/11/2025 · OR 61 par6 @ Newcastle 09/12/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 59 · 1m4f98y Std 137 · below its mark09/12/2025 · OR 59 par9/126OR 595 @ Ripon 17/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 56 · 1m1f170y Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Newcastle 02/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 54 · 1m4f98y Std 129 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 54 par2/066OR 546 @ Ripon 18/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 50 · 1m4f10y Goo 139 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Beverley 03/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 49 · 1m4f23y Goo 126 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 49 par3/076OR 496 @ Catterick 08/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 49 · 1m7f189y GF 121 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 48 · 2m56y Sta 119 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 48 par31/076OR 48projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Newcastle67th7th0
2026-07-08Catterick62nd2nd0
2026-07-03Beverley63rd3rd0
2026-06-18Ripon68th8th0
2026-06-02Newcastle68th8th0
2026-05-17Ripon59th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1117/053/0731/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength51%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/11/202511th10/147%17%-0.31
18/11/20257th12/137%50%+0.13
09/12/202511th11/271%9%-0.62
17/05/20269th25/10%20%+0.20
02/06/20268th9/153%30%-0.23
18/06/20268th40/10%36%+0.36
03/07/20263rd12/137%50%+0.13
08/07/20262nd12/137%75%+0.38
31/07/20267th16/116%25%+0.09