4
Zephlyn
7yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 56
Catterick · Jacky Rylance 60th Birthday Celebration Handicap · 1m 7f 189y
#1
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
84%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength58%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Hexham | 5 | +1 | ||
| 2026-05-30 | Catterick | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Perth | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-02 | Southwell | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Southwell | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-01-22 | Southwell | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength14%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 02/12/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 16/12/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 06/01/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/01/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 02/04/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |