1
Captain Cess
4yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 59
Catterick · Hannah Blanchard 21st Birthday Handicap · 5f 212y
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Thirsk | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Wetherby | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Chepstow | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Chelmsford City | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-01 | Windsor | 6 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-07-19 | Ripon | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength83%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2024 | 3rd | 100/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 20/04/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 01/06/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 19/07/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 01/09/2025 | 12th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 23/10/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 55% | +0.49 |
| 21/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 91% | +0.49 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |