5
Howzak
8yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 57
Catterick · Hannah Blanchard 21st Birthday Handicap · 5f 212y
#6
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Catterick | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Carlisle | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Newcastle | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Southwell | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Newcastle | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-29 | Newcastle | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2025 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/01/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 05/12/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 29/12/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/02/2026 | 1st | 28/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 11/02/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 06/03/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 15/06/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/07/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |