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4

Lucius Aurelius

4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 57

Catterick · Hannah Blanchard 21st Birthday Handicap · 5f 212y

#7

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Returned to his best when finally getting off the mark here (5f) in April, but has run poorly on 3 of his next 4 starts.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 16/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 65 · 6f16y Std 135 · beat its mark16/10/2025 · OR 65 par16/106OR 655 @ Newcastle 31/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 63 · 5f Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/01/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Southwell 10/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 62 · 4f214y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/03/2026 · OR 62 par10/035OR 626 @ Pontefract 07/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 60 · 5f3y GS 130 · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Catterick 22/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 57 · 5f Goo 132 · beat its mark22/04/2026 · OR 57 par22/046OR 575 @ Pontefract 22/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 62 · 5f3y Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Catterick 11/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 62 · 5f GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 62 par11/065OR 625 @ Pontefract 29/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 60 · 5f3y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Catterick 15/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 58 · 5f GF 135 · below its mark15/07/2026 · OR 58 par15/076OR 58projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-15Catterick69th9th0
2026-06-29Pontefract58th7th+1
2026-06-11Catterick53rd2nd+1
2026-05-22Pontefract510th9th+1
2026-04-22Catterick61st1st0
2026-04-07Pontefract610th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/107/0411/0615/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength2%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/10/20256th3/184%50%-0.34
31/01/20265th15/261%56%-0.05
10/03/20269th9/276%27%-0.49
07/04/202610th13/266%25%-0.41
22/04/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
22/05/202610th10/147%0%-0.47
11/06/20263rd4/179%67%-0.12
29/06/20268th15/261%0%-0.61
15/07/20269th11/142%0%-0.42