1
Brunello Breeze
7yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 57
Catterick · racingtv.com Handicap · 1m 4f 13y
#6
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength54%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | Newcastle | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Newcastle | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Newcastle | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-09-03 | Hamilton | 5 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2025-08-21 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-07-26 | Newcastle | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength53%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/2024 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 42% | -0.29 |
| 03/09/2024 | 11th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 30/05/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 26/07/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 21/08/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 03/09/2025 | 14th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/01/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 24/01/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 11/03/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 25% | +0.20 |