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4

Hansteen

3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 58

Catterick · racingtv.com Handicap · 1m 4f 13y

#1

Rank

Odds

8/15

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

95%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improved upped to this trip when a close second on handicap debut at Ripon before capitalising on a good opportunity in a classified event at Pontefract. Beaten only by a Sir Mark Prescott-trained handicap newcomer at Southwell since but could prove vulnerable to a similar type here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength61%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Catterick 01/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 7f6y Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS1/1055 @ Nottingham 23/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 1m75y Hvy 131 · HIGHER CLASS23/1054 @ Catterick 08/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 7f6y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS8/0446 @ Ripon 06/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 50 · 1m4f10y Goo 125 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 50 par6/076OR 506 @ Pontefract 17/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 53 · 1m4f5y Goo 124 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 53 par17/076OR 536 @ Southwell 23/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 53 · 1m3f23y Std 134 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 53 par23/076OR 53projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-23Southwell62nd2nd0
2026-07-17Pontefract61st1st0
2026-07-06Ripon62nd2nd0
2026-04-08Catterick411th9th+2
2025-10-23Nottingham58th7th+1
2025-10-01Catterick56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1023/108/046/0717/0723/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/10/20256th12/137%29%-0.08
23/10/20258th28/10%36%+0.36
08/04/202611th80/10%0%0.00
06/07/20262nd25/10%86%+0.86
17/07/20261st5/696%100%+0.04
23/07/20262nd8/1597%89%-0.08