5
Muhib
5yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 46
Catterick · racingtv.com Handicap · 1m 4f 13y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%
What the class read says
Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Pontefract | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Pontefract | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Nottingham | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Doncaster | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Pontefract | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Catterick | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength87%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 15/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 04/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 11/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 85% | +0.11 |
| 22/05/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 05/06/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |