2
On The Bubble
5yo Mare · 9-7 · OR 50
Catterick · racingtv.com Handicap · 1m 4f 13y
#4
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Ayr | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Catterick | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Musselburgh | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Musselburgh | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Musselburgh | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Musselburgh | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength19%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 21/10/2025 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 29/04/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 21/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 06/06/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 22/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 30/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 15/07/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 20/07/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |