6
Project Kinsman
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 46
Catterick · racingtv.com Handicap · 1m 4f 13y
#3
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength53%
What the class read says
Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Catterick | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Southwell | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Newcastle | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Newcastle | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-13 | Newcastle | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Newcastle | 4 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength37%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 9th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/10/2025 | 8th | 125/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 19/03/2026 | 8th | 200/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 13/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 83% | +0.41 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 71% | +0.29 |
| 02/06/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 42% | -0.32 |
| 18/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |