2
Brain Freeze
3yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 52
Catterick · Racing Again 17th August Handicap · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength40%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Ripon | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ayr | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Beverley | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Ripon | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Redcar | 5 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Redcar | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength10%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 01/10/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 13/04/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 17/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 23/06/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |