5
Gwen Tennyson
3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 49
Catterick · Racing Again 17th August Handicap · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength74%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Thirsk | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Catterick | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Musselburgh | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Catterick | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Catterick | 4 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-04-28 | Southwell | 3 | 8th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength31%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 8% | -0.29 |
| 28/04/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 30/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 15/07/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 24/07/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |