4
Havin A Flyer
3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 50
Catterick · Racing Again 17th August Handicap · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
90%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Southwell | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Southwell | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Catterick | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Catterick | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength67%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 29/12/2025 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 20/01/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 11/06/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 60% | +0.05 |
| 18/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 78% | -0.05 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |