4
Liseo
7yo Gelding · 9-5
Deauville · Prix Des Remparts D'honfleurhandicap · 1m 1f 207y
#1
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
68%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Deauville | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Deauville | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Chantilly | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Deauville | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-22 | Deauville | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength57%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 02/12/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 29/12/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 22/01/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 07/02/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 27/02/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 08/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 88% | +0.30 |
| 02/06/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 04/07/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 62% | +0.01 |