7
Purple Mood
5yo Gelding · 9-1
Deauville · Prix Des Remparts D'honfleurhandicap · 1m 1f 207y
#2
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Nancy | 4 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-03-10 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-24 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength35%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/12/2025 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 19/01/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 04/02/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 24/02/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 64% | -0.02 |
| 10/03/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 47% | -0.01 |
| 04/04/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 10/05/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 54% | +0.28 |
| 02/06/2026 | 13th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |