6
Baby Hartwood
4yo Colt · 9-4
Deauville · Prix De L'avant-port D'honfleur Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.4
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Saint-Cloud | 2 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-06-15 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Compiegne | 2 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-03-10 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Chantilly | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength54%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 80% | +0.25 |
| 19/01/2026 | 12th | 4/1 | 79% | 21% | -0.58 |
| 05/02/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 93% | +0.32 |
| 27/02/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 10/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 73% | +0.15 |
| 25/05/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 15/06/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 45% | -0.12 |
| 28/06/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |